WNBA: Which Team Can Make a Run for the Playoffs?

With the regular season winding down, which team below the playoff line has the best chance of making a run?

It’s hard to imagine any of the current top eight teams in the WNBA standings slipping into an abyss and falling out of the playoff picture. The first three places – occupied by the Minnesota Lynx, Golden State Valkyries and Las Vegas Aces – are seemingly secure. From there, it would take a major collapse by the Atlanta Dream, Indiana Fever, Washington Mystics, New York Liberty or Dallas Wings to see the playoff field change.

That said, anything is possible, which is why the teams sitting between ninth and 12th place are holding out hope they can find their way into the playoff conversation.

Despite snapping an 11-game win streak Monday night with their 97-88 victory over the Chicago Sky, we know the Seattle Storm will be on vacation early as they’re already eliminated from the playoffs.

The 14th-place Connecticut Sun traded away arguably who was their best player before the deadline when they shipped Aneesah Morrow to Toronto. But the 13th-place Tempo have lost nine in a row after being drubbed in Atlanta on Monday.

That leaves four teams to contemplate. But is it too late for any of them to make a run?

Which WNBA Team Can Make A Playoff Push? 

9th place Portland Fire (13-19)

The expansion squad might have had a legitimate shot if Sarah Ashlee Barker hadn’t torn her ACL on July 22. Her injury was a significant blow to the Fire, who haven’t necessarily collapsed, but did expose how thin their margin for error is while forcing other players into much larger roles. The Fire were scoring 85.3 points per game with her in the lineup; without her, they’ve seen their scoring balance come to life as they’re averaging 95.8 PPG. Nevertheless, without Barker, the Fire lost versatility, as she had become a fixture in the starting lineup and could score without dominating the ball, defend multiple perimeter positions, rebound from the guard spot and provide another physical attacker alongside Portland’s other scorers. Now, against elite opponents, Portland is still looking for players who can defend, rebound and score efficiently without requiring plays to be run for them. With seven of the Fire’s last 12 games against playoff teams, it’ll be hard for them to make a run.

10th place Los Angeles Sparks (12-19)

It may have looked as if the Sparks packed it in for the season when they traded Kelsey Plum just before the deadline, but they’ve actually remained competitive, going 2-2 since, with wins over the Fire and first-place Minnesota Lynx. With Plum, the Sparks boasted a high-usage guard who would create her own shot, attack switches and carry large portions of the offense. The Sparks have actually seen a slight uptick on offense since her departure, as they’re averaging 90.3 PPG since the trade, a shade higher than their season-long average of 89.2. Without her, Los Angeles’ possessions have become much more balanced, as they’re distributed throughout the roster. Dearica Hamby, Rae Burrell and Cameron Brink are all capable of shouldering the burden. And if all three are on, the Sparks remain a dangerous threat, just as we saw in Minneapolis. Also, rather than Plum determining when a shot would be taken, the Sparks are more apt to generate shots through ball movement, transition opportunities and multiple creators, resulting in high-percentage shots. This might be looked at as a developmental benefit, giving the Sparks insight into which players will be part of their next serious run at the title, but as long as they’re mathematically alive, they may be the valid choice of all four teams that can make a run.

11th place Chicago Sky (12-21)

Had the Sky beaten last-place Seattle on Monday, they could have been taken seriously with 11 games left in the season. But their 97-88 defeat is alarming since the Storm had been saddled with an 11-game losing streak. The momentum Chicago had generated by winning five of its previous nine games was virtually brought to an abrupt halt, as it had no room for losses against teams below it. The Sky’s problem isn’t simply the eighth loss in 13 games or falling nine games below .500; it was the opportunity that was squandered. Their remaining schedule gave them at least a theoretical opportunity to make a late charge, but beating a team like the Storm was essentially mandatory. The loss was particularly disappointing because Chicago had recently shown signs of becoming a dangerous late-season team, even beating Los Angeles, 95-88, on Aug. 5, and its recent losses had generally been competitive. The Sky aren’t officially eliminated, but their margin for error has gone from extremely small to almost nonexistent.

12th place Phoenix Mercury (12-22)

The reigning WNBA runner-up still has a path to the postseason, but at this point it is a long shot rather than a realistic expectation, even with Plum joining the roster. With 10 games remaining, the Mercury are well behind the teams occupying the final postseason positions. Plum joining Kahleah Copper and Alyssa-Thomas gave Phoenix three veteran players capable of taking over stretches of games, but it just hasn’t panned out like the powers-that-be would have hoped. Since Plum’s arrival, the Mercury rank 13th in the league with 85.0 PPG. Nevertheless, though Phoenix doesn’t necessarily need to become fundamentally different to make a run, it just needs to get hot immediately. It’s not out of the question, either, as the Mercury’s remaining schedule creates direct opportunities with games against Los Angeles, Portland, Atlanta, Washington three times, Toronto, Dallas twice and Las Vegas. Those Portland and Los Angeles games are particularly important because those teams are also near Phoenix in the standings.

W.G. Ramirez is a veteran sports writer from Las Vegas and a Staff Writer at Ballislife.com. Follow him on X at @WillieGRamirez.

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