Of all the changes we saw across the league this offseason, you could legitimately argue that the complexion of the NBA’s Central Division changed unlike any other in the league this summer. Especially compared to what we were dealing with going into last season and even more so when you go back to 2024-25.
Two seasons ago, this division was home to four teams who could pose a legitimate threat against anyone in a playoff series. Now, there’s hardly two. And despite the fact that the conference’s win leader has come from this division twice in a row, neither of those teams made a conference finals appearance that respective season.
As far as change goes, the division lost its most prominent player of the decade after Giannis Antetokounmpo was finally sent from Milwaukee to Miami after years of stalemate. The Bucks got Tyler Herro and Jaime Jaquez amongst a list of assets in return, but it’s safe to say they’ll be on a much different trajectory this season.
The Indiana Pacers will get Tyrese Haliburton back after missing last season, but the Pacers were far worse without him than anyone would have expected and Haliburton didn’t exactly have the smoothest rehab process. The Chicago Bulls are entering an era of complete optimism after drafting potential star Caleb Wilson fourth overall out of North Carolina in June, but it still seems they are a few years away from seriously contending for a playoff spot
Projected Order of Finish
Detroit Pistons – 53-39
Cleveland Cavaliers – 48-34
Indiana Pacers – 40-42
Chicago Bulls – 37-45
Milwaukee Bucks – 26-56
Detroit Pistons
Last season: 60-22
Predicted 2026-27 record: 53-29
Tier: Conference contenders
We officially saw the Pistons make the leap from a solid playoff team to a legitimate contender last season, anchored by Cade Cunningham’s emergence into an MVP frontrunner and complimented by a breakout All-Star season from center Jalen Duren. What’s certain about this Detroit team is that it has an identity that aligns with the franchises’ historical MO, from the Bad Boys in the 1980s to the “Goin To Work” era in the 2000s. The Pistons now have belief from a city that went without it for too long, although I think they’ll willingly sacrifice a few of those regular season wins to enter the postseason with better legs and a cleaner bill of health.
Cleveland Cavaliers
Cleveland Cavaliers:
James Harden
Donovan Mitchell
Peyton Watson
Evan Mobley
Jarrett AllenTop __ starting 5 in the East. pic.twitter.com/aboLlTlduJ
— StatMuse (@statmuse) August 20, 2026
Last season: 52-30
Predicted 2026-27 record: 48-34
Tier: Potential playoff threat
The Cavaliers won twelve fewer games in 2025-26 than they did the previous season, but they did get one round further in the Eastern Conference Playoffs before being demoralized by the eventual champion Knicks. It feels like this current iteration of the franchise has probably hit its ceiling, even if it can pull off the occasional 55-win season over the next couple of years before it inevitably departs with its core. To salt the wound, it seemed for a few weeks like LeBron James‘ return was a sealed deal before the franchise hero chose Philadelphia instead. Ouch. I’ll classify the Cavaliers as a potential playoff threat only because they do still have the potential to beat everyone in the East besides the Knicks in a seven-game series, but the likelihood of them stringing together multiple series wins feels pretty unlikely.
Indiana Pacers
Last season: 19-63
Predicted 2026-27 record: 40-42
Tier: Still working back
Of all the record predictions I’ll make heading into the season, I’ll be completely transparent that this is the one I’m least certain about. Frankly, I don’t think any so-called “expert” can truly say they know for sure what the Pacers are going to do this season. I mean, the product that organization put on the court last year was historically bad to the point that it can’t simply be explained by Tyrese Halburton’s absence. On the other hamd, the last time we saw a Haliburton-led Pacers team they were legitimately unbeatable and were probably on their way to being crowned champions before his untimely injury. I’ll be modest and say this team will hover around .500, but I could see them teetering toward either side of the extreme.
Chicago Bulls
How can Matas Buzelis and Caleb Wilson make each other better?
“We can try to kill each other on the court.”
The two were on the same team yesterday in 5-on-5, opposing teams today. Buzelis called Wilson his “twin” and raved about their early relationship. pic.twitter.com/Nd88DRPBWE
— Elias Schuster (@Schuster_Elias) September 30, 2026
Last season: 31-51
Predicted 2026-27 record: 40-42
Tier: A few years away
Of the four super prospects we saw taken in the first round of the 2026 NBA Draft, there’s a reality where Caleb Wilson has the best pro career of the bunch. He didn’t get the same hype that the top 3 selections got throughout the course of the season, but by the time he finished his NBA Summer League run, I don’t think anyone can argue against Wilson being on that tier. Combine that with another emerging star in Matas Buzelis and a point guard in Josh Giddey who is surprisingly developing into a solid veteran, and it feels like the Bulls are going to be the next Chicago-based team to go through a youthful renaissance in the near future.
Milwaukee Bucks
Tyler Herro sinks a pair of threes in his @Bucks preseason debut
MIN/MIL is LIVE on NBA League Pass. pic.twitter.com/WtkM84G4ja
— NBA (@NBA) October 6, 2026
Last season: 32-50
Predicted 2026-27 record: 26-56
Tier: Rebuilding
The band-aid that was trading Giannis Antetokounmpo had to be ripped off eventually. After a 32-win season where the Big Fella was struggling to stay active, it became even more urgent. The return they got for him is enough to lay a solid foundation for the future and that will only improve as the team continues to make long-term plays, but the future isn’t now and that foundation is still just a foundation. Nothing has been built yet, and frankly they’re still short some supplies. That being said, it’s not all doom and gloom in Milwaukee like it is in, say, Brooklyn.
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