“The American Carnival” is a yearlong cultural examination of the impact of the Super Bowl halftime show far beyond entertainment. Through history, politics, race, economics and music, the series explores how 12 minutes on the most-watched stage in the country often say more about America than the game itself.
It’s September, the NFL season just kicked off, and all feels right in the world again. Well, not “right,” but you understand the excitement I’m trying to portray here. Yet, even as the season begins, one of the major questions of the football calendar is presumably closer to being answered.
Who’s going to headline halftime at the Super Bowl?
Over the past four years, halftime show announcements for Rihanna, Usher, Kendrick Lamar and Bad Bunny all landed by the start of October. There’s no reason to expect otherwise now. That being said, expect this to be our last halftime power rankings. One glaring change you’ll notice is the omission of Ariana Grande. Last month, the Wicked star announced she is stepping back from public life following her Eternal Sunshine Tour, which wrapped up Sept. 1 in London.
So, before the NFL, Roc Nation and Apple Music reveal who will grace the stage in February, here’s a final attempt at predicting who has the best shot.
10. Harry Styles
His “Together Together” tour has been a massive success — so much so that he’s considering taking it nationwide after his grand Madison Square Garden residency. It’s worth considering, but I don’t see this as the primary reason he would be picked for the Super Bowl.
9. SZA
She all but confirmed new music is coming soon. If that’s the case, I’ll be the last person complaining. Still, seeing her on the Super Bowl stage in five months seems far-fetched.
8. Taylor Swift
We already addressed the Ariana Grande of it all, but Swift continues to drop in our rankings. It is not because of her star power — few people in the world can match her status — but mainly because as each week passes, there is little expectation she will take the stage. Make no mistake, though: It’s hers whenever she wants it.
7. Olivia Rodrigo
Rodrigo has one of my favorite album titles of the year in you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love. She’s already a preeminent pop star who chronicles love and heartbreak. It wouldn’t shock me if Rodrigo is picked for the halftime stage in the next few years. Her “Daisy Chains Fields” festival, which she launched this summer, was an overwhelming success. It just doesn’t feel like this is her year. That’s honestly the only reason she’s not higher on this list.
6. Dua Lipa
There’s fresh speculation of a new album in the works. Had that news arrived earlier this year, Dua would likely be higher on the list. Much like Olivia Rodrigo, she remains an obvious choice for a future Super Bowl stage — perhaps Atlanta in 2028?
5. Charli XCX
Taylor Hill/Getty Images
- Cultural Momentum: 7/10
- Catalog Infrastructure: 9/10
- Storyline: 8/10
- Showtime Acumen: 9/10
- NFL Compatibility: 8/10
Halftime Probability Score: 41/50
The Case For: Charli XCX’s willingness to constantly reinvent herself and her sound is her most admirable quality. Just listen to this year’s Music, Fashion, Film. Between the international phenomenon of 2024’s Brat and her current sound, she is clearly a pop star comfortable in her own skin and creative bag. That alone makes a strong argument for Charli to headline the biggest stage in music.
The Case Against: Now the question is, will she? For everything Charli has going for her — which is plenty, hence her landing at the No. 5 slot — the momentum does not seem to be there right now. If there’s one thing recent halftime shows have proven, momentum is key.
4. Cardi B
Johnny Nunez/WireImage
- Cultural Momentum: 8/10
- Catalog Infrastructure: 9/10
- Storyline: 9/10
- Showtime Acumen: 10/10
- NFL Compatibility: 9/10
Halftime Probability Score: 45/50
The Case For: Cardi B holds a doctoral degree in spectacle. Forget the songs — though she has plenty — you know Cardi is going to do something. Like the other artists on this list, her catalog is deep. She’s got the friends to bring out to make this a party. And she knows how to party. Give her 15 minutes on stage, and I guarantee she will have everyone talking. Let’s hope this year’s Super Bowl is more competitive and entertaining than the past two, because Cardi might just usurp the game itself.
The Case Against: Then again, unpredictability can be a detriment, too. Not knowing what Cardi has planned could cause a few sleepless nights and anxiety medication refills in the league offices. The performance would be memorable. Just how memorable would the NFL want it to be, though?
3. Miley Cyrus
PG/Bauer-Griffin/GC Images
- Cultural Momentum: 8/10
- Catalog Infrastructure: 10/10
- Storyline: 9/10
- Showtime Acumen: 10/10
- NFL Compatibility: 9/10
Halftime Probability Score: 46/50
The Case For: If any artist’s chances have skyrocketed over the last month, it’s Cyrus. It makes sense. Her star power is unquestionable, and a potential set list of “Party In The U.S.A.,” her cover of Dolly Parton’s iconic “Jolene,” “We Can’t Stop,” and certainly her two-time Grammy-winning “Flowers” — the latter two belonging to YouTube’s “Billion Views Club” — is enough to sell her candidacy. Cyrus’ musical evolution also fits the Super Bowl stage perfectly. Few artists can seamlessly transition between rock, pop and country so effortlessly.
The Case Against: We’ve already explained her star power and deep catalog. She also has a surplus of charisma. The question, much like Charli XCX, is whether massive popularity is enough. What is her “why now”? Maybe that isn’t an issue at all, but Roc Nation has been extremely intentional with its decision at this stage. The question is whether Miley is a halftime show that Los Angeles is going to get, or a global superstar with the bangers to command one. Honestly, it’s a good problem to have.
2. JAŸ-Z
Dan Mullan/Getty Images
- Cultural Momentum: 10/10
- Catalog Infrastructure: 9/10
- Storyline: 9/10
- Showtime Acumen: 9/10
- NFL Compatibility: 10/10
Halftime Probability Score: 47/50
The Case For: If the NFL really wanted this to be about a definitive cultural moment, Shawn “JAŸ-Z” Carter is the choice here. The working relationship is there, and focusing on the halftime show, it’s been extremely beneficial to both parties, as hip-hop has become a defining force of recent halftime shows under him. But a halftime show featuring JAŸ himself would be entirely different. Not only could he weave through massive hits like “Run This Town,” “Empire State of Mind,” “PSA,” “Encore” and more — the potential guests he could attract to share the moment would have people talking for years.
The Case Against: Few reasons exist to say no to JAŸ-Z, but if we must nitpick, here are a few: He plays two shows at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles in October. Would he return just four months later to perform at the Super Bowl? It’s an insane question to ask, but it’s a relevant one. The pun-intended blueprint is right there for him: the architect of the modern halftime show taking the stage himself. But the most obvious choice isn’t always the one selected. This isn’t about whether JAŸ-Z can do the halftime show and increase his legend even more. Of course he can. The question is whether there’s enough incentive for him to want to do it.
1. Justin Bieber
Eduardo Carmim/Eurasia Sport Images/Getty Images
- Cultural Momentum : 9/10
- Catalog Infrastructure: 10/10
- Storyline: 9/10
- Showtime Acumen: 10/10
- NFL Compatibility: 10/10
Halftime Probability Score: 48/50
The Case For: JAŸ-Z might have the best case for No. 1, but Bieber has the best case for actually getting booked. Outside of maybe Taylor Swift, no candidate screams “how the hell has he not done this yet?” louder than Bieber. I won’t even bother running through his catalog, but it’s more robust than the asteroid that wiped out the dinosaurs. Global audience? Check. Hits? C’mon now. And I’ve come around to this: His performance at the 2026 FIFA World Cup actually helps his argument. Booking Bieber feels less like a fun possibility and more like a box the NFL needs to check.
The Case Against: The dude has been famous for more than half his life, carrying a weight most people never see. I’ve always said this about Bieber in these rankings: He has to want to do it. And that means compressing one of the most prolific careers of the 21st century into a 12- to 15-minute set that not only entertains but defines who he is.
The post ‘The American Carnival’: Halftime power rankings Part 3 appeared first on Andscape.
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