The Southwest Division produced last season’s Western Conference Finals representative in the San Antonio Spurs, but it was a pretty top-heavy division outside of them and the 52-win Houston Rockets.
The Dallas Mavericks struggled much of the season despite Cooper Flagg’s Rookie of the Year campaign, finishing with a 26-56 record that included a division-low 4-12 record against other Southwest teams. The New Orleans Pelicans also limped to 26 wins, which was only slightly better than the 25-win season the Memphis Grizzlies posted.
Will the Spurs dominate the division again, or will the Rockets finally emerge as a true championship threat? Can Flagg lead Dallas to the playoffs in his second season? It’s almost time to find out.
Southwest Predicted Order of Finish
San Antonio Spurs: 63-19
Houston Rockets: 48-34
Dallas Mavericks: 37-45
Memphis Grizzlies: 30-52
New Orleans Pelicans: 21-61
San Antonio Spurs
Last season: 62-20
Predicted 2026-27 record: 63-19
Tier: Can win the championship
We knew Victor Wembanyama and the San Antonio Spurs were going to break out and become one of the league’s best teams eventually, but it happened ahead of schedule for the 22-year-old wunderkind and his equally youthful supporting cast. Wembanyama is almost certainly going to go on a revenge tour of epic proportions after his disappointment in the 2026 NBA Finals, and he’s as substantial of a preseason MVP favorite as there’s been in recent memory.
Dylan Harper becoming a full-time starter raises the ceiling for an increased regular-season win total, but you also have to account for the possibility that Wembanyama could miss games with his history. Regardless, there might not be a more bona fide championship threat in the league than the Spurs.
Houston Rockets
Last season: 52-30
Predicted 2026-27 record: 48-34
Tier: Tough playoff matchup
The Houston Rockets have shown they can consistently hover around the 50-win mark with the roster they currently have, but what they haven’t shown is that they can be a legitimate threat in the playoffs. Kevin Durant is still one of the game’s most potent scoring threats even at the age of 38, but the idea that he’s going to push this roster over the hump might be a little far-fetched at this stage.
Still, with someone as talented as Durant on the offensive end and someone as ferocious as Amen Thompson defensively, you’re going to be a tough out for any team in the postseason in the right circumstances.
Dallas Mavericks
Last season: 26-56
Predicted 2026-27 record: 37-45
Tier: Improving but not there yet
The Dallas Mavericks have one of the more interesting situations in the league this season as they welcome back Kyrie Irving from his extended ACL rehab to play alongside second-year phenom Cooper Flagg.
While it sounds promising on the surface, the Mavericks could very well still be bad even if both Flagg and Irving register spectacular seasons. And as great as Irving has proven to be throughout his career, it’s far from a guarantee that he’ll come back at age 34 the same player he was when he got injured at 32.
I like bringing in Dusty May as head coach after the monster season he put together with Michigan last season, but I think it will take May at least a year to implement a successful program in the NBA.
Memphis Grizzlies
Last season: 25-57
Predicted 2026-27 record: 30-52
Tier: Developing
This Grizzlies roster is still too young to seriously compete for a playoff spot in the Western Conference, but they are putting together an intriguing collection of talent in Bluff City. Cameron Boozer already looks to be a home run selection at No. 3 in this year’s NBA Draft, and Cedric Coward’s bright rookie season a year ago proved that he has the potential to develop into an All-Star wing in the league.
The first season in the post-Ja Morant and Jaren Jackson Jr. era will likely be a rocky one for this Grizzlies team that’s still developing into what it will become, but they are only a few years away from finding themselves in contention for the postseason.
New Orleans Pelicans
Last season: 26-56
Predicted 2026-27 record: 21-61
Tier: Candidate to sell
This isn’t something that’s even close to happening at this point as far as I know, but I really have a hard time believing both Zion Williamson and Trey Murphy make it through this season in Pelicans uniforms. This current collection of players in New Orleans is at max a 35-win group, and with Williamson’s consistent unavailability and the organization’s lack of structure, they have the potential to go a lot lower than that. And I think they will.
Jordan Poole has already proven to be arguably the league’s best tank commander, and he’ll get another chance to put his uncanny skills to the test in The Big Easy this season.
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